Sunday, January 21, 2018
On December 22th, 2017, Trump signed into law a massive tax cut that fixed in America's staggeringly high corporate tax rate, and lowered individual income tax rates for nearly every American. This economic boost and tax cut for Americans was hailed by the Mainstream Media outlets like CNN and ABC as the evil attack of the 1% upon the defenseless 99%, and through hysteria and misinformation many Americans were convinced that this tax cut which clearly cuts taxes for the middle class, was somehow actually a tax raise.
However, facts might finally be breaking through as the GOP has risen 4 points in the congressional ballot since the 1st of January(RealClearPolitics), cutting the Democrats lead in the congressional ballot from an average of nearly 13%, to just 7% in less than a month. Many polls now show the Republicans within just 5% of the Democrats, for instance, the CNN congressional Ballot poll shows that now Republicans are within just 5% of the Democrats, 44-49% , whereas in early December, the lead for the Democrats in the CNN congressional ballot poll was a massive 18%. With the Democrats plummeting in the polls, their chance of taking back the Senate is being dashed upon the rocks while the Democrats quest for the house strays perilously to the same fate, of course these numbers aren't final, with highly volatile polling, and many months to go till midterms, both parties have plenty of time to make gains or losses in the polling.
The question that this brings for the Republican Party is what caused their polling numbers to go up. While many claim that the GOP tax cut has lead to this increase, I would proffer a separate explanation for this new boost in the polls. While the GOP Tax cut may have lead to some increases, there is no indication of this that can be found through graphing the polling numbers, in fact the Republicans stayed utterly stagnant in the polls for an entire week after the GOP tax bill was passed. Instead, it seems evident to me that this rise in the polls directly correlates with the attempted passage of the budget and eventual shutdown, and the new #ReleaseTheMemo movement that has been brought about by what some GOP lawmakers have called "shocking" revelations in the classified memo on alleged FISA abuses. While polling shows that about as many Americans would blame the Republicans as the Democrats for the Government shutdown, despite the shutdown largely being due to the Democrats and their incessant yammering to put the rights of Illegal immigrants before that of members of the military, ect... despite the fact that DACA doesn't even expire till March 5th. It almost seems like most Americans care about members of the military being paid their due over that of illegal immigrants getting to stay, which as i've mentioned is a fabricated issue in the sense that it is not an immediate concern due to the expiration of DACA not happening until over a month from now, especially not over the wellbeing of our military. It also doesn't help that Democrats might be about to have their Russia Collusion narrative blown apart, although nothings for certain.
Both the Memo and Government Shutdown correlate with a rapid rise of 4% points in the congressional ballot for the GOP, and it doesn't even appear to be slowing down. All of the newest polls have the GOP around 5 Percentage points away from the Dems, so considering that the few outliers from last week will soon be factored out of the RealClearPolitics average, it appears the Republicans will continue to climb in the Congressional Ballot average.