Tuesday, January 31, 2017

The Evolution of Economy

Throughout any country's history, it is inevitable to move through certain key stages. Any country will start out as an agricultural Economy, unless of course it starts off with technological advances and is blessed with pre-existing benefits. As the Technological advances occur in an Agricultural Economy, Industrialization begins to take place, and very quickly, industrialization overtakes Agriculture and you find yourself with an Industrial Economy. Goods are produced in mass quantities, Technological advances boom, but people are ever hungry for more, not just the rich and ambitious. People quickly see the wealth accrued by the wealthy and become envious, undoubtedly, seeing others better off than themselves, the people begin to ask for raises, they call for minimum wage, they call for regulations to keep them safe in the factories, and very quickly, through these sorts of changes that are imposed by the government, it becomes more and more expensive to manufacture. Industrial Jobs look elsewhere, to nations without regulation and without minimum wage  and began to send their jobs to these nations.
Here is the crucial point, this is the Transition from an Industrial Economy, to a Service Economy. The most problematic factor in this transition is that in almost all cases, the jobs leaving are going faster than the jobs in the service sector being created, and this creates a disturbing and confusing dilemma. The first thing that is thought up is to return to the industrial age, "if a service economy will cause a loss of jobs temporarily don't go to it," may be the response of the casual onlooker, but of course this can not be done. Once people have achieved minimum wage and regulations, it is nearly impossible to take it back. You can give a dog a bone, but taking it is very difficult. And so of course the next conclusion is, what if we simply make jobs leave slower so that the jobs created can keep pace with the jobs lost. And here is the solution, but how it is achieved is the tricky part. I have looked at various possibilities and have concluded, to avoid the inevitable dip in employment and the economy that occurs at this stage, protectionism in trade may be neccessary. But the Degree is difficult, obviously none should soar to north korean levels of Protectionism, but Here we come to Trump. Trump is calling for individual trade deals, He can not revive America to make it stay an industrial Economy, it is inevitable that we fall out of that, unless we went to North Korea style Economy, which of course would simply make America worse off as isolationism is not a strong method for economic growth in a globalized world economy, What Trump can do is slow the loss of jobs at the stage of transition. He hits the goal perfectly on the head, slow the loss of jobs, and allow a country to ease into the Service economy. One does not simply jump into a hot tub.
Once the stage of Service economy is hit, and services are provided rather than products, It may seem like this is the final stage. But interestingly, Economies form a parabola, not in the gdp, but in the form of economy. The economy will go up from Agricultural, to industrial, to service, and then come right back down, all the way to agricultural. Here is why.
Almost all countries will inevitably hit the service economy stage, but there comes a point when the few industrial nations left can not provide for the many service economies, the people in those nations will still fight for benefits and regulations, and so the last industrial economies will die out, but certainly a world economy that only provides goods and services without the means to produce those goods and services is unsustainable. The highest technologically advanced nations who are also geographically benefited will become the new industrial powers as they move into a stage of mass production, most definitely by means of robotic technologies rather than the labor of men and women, or whatever genders there are when this happens. 
But while nations transition to industrial economies, Populations are growing, resources are becoming scarce, and water is becoming a necessity rather than some steadfast part of our lives. The Earth will become unsustainable for the massive human population without an agricultural boom. Agriculture will become the top industry and the Circle of Economic stages will be complete for its first run, and then repeat, again, and again, and again.