Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Purple Texas?

Despite a disappointing election for the Democrat party, they have touted several seemingly impressive facts. Obviously the Democrat party has played the fact that Hillary won the popular vote, and will continue to do so, but one other little tidbit that the Dems absolutely love is Texas.

Trump won Texas by 9% so what's the big deal right? Well, that is the closest margin that the Dems have reached in decades, and this has fired up the Democrat party. Media groups from every side have paraded or decried Texas' seemingly unstoppable march towards becoming a Purple State, however, is this accurate, or is it just jumping to conclusions.

Despite seemingly rising support for the Democrat party, the fact is that Trump really only was a couple percentage points below his average, and this of course could be attributed to less favorability with hispanics than most republicans. In reality, the only reason Texas seems to be turning purple is because the previous election was such a blowout. Romney carried Texas by 16 points, yet Mccain only carried texas in 2008 by about 11. Trump's 9 point victory is not vastly off from Mccain's and the facts show that if Trump runs in 2020, he might do even better.

Despite the quickly growing hispanic population in Texas, It would be ignorant to claim that hispanic growth would change Texas to a blue state. Hispanics are not as monolithic as Dems would have you think, in fact Cubans, one of the largest hispanics groups, went almost 60% for Trump, and overall, Hispanics went around 30% for Trump. Hispanics are not nearly as Democratic as identity politics would have people believe.

Hispanics are not the only growing group in Texas, the influx of immigrants is huge, but these are not immigrants from other countries, these are immigrants from states like California, Florida, and Illinois. According to an analysis by the Office of the State Demographer, while 5.9 Million moved to texas between 2005-2013, 4.8 Million of those people were from other states.
Texas's economy is booming, While other states were hit hard by the Recession, Texas has continued to steadily climb, and it's Business environment has lured millions. Even more interesting, is that out of those millions of people flooding into texas, they are coming in at a ration of about 2:1 conservative rather than liberal. Texas very well might become more red.

However, No speculation is fool-proof. A good democrat push could flip Texas, just as much as a good Republican Presidential candidate could win the hispanic vote. But for now, Texas ain't purple, The Lone Star state stays red and it looks to stay that way.